A final in-depth look at the 2024 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks
From Weighted On-Target Percentage, to overall rankings, let's put a bow on this 2024 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks.
We are nearing the conclusion of the 2024 NFL Draft cycle with prospects set for their new homes in just two weeks. What better time to release a final look at Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and the rest of this quarterback class?
Year after year we hit a wall of prospect fatigue and leaked smokescreens from teams and agents to NFL insiders to posture prospects, specifically quarterbacks, against one another. When this happens, sight begins to get lost of year-long evaluations and a much larger body of work among draftniks and relatively casual consumers of the draft and specific teams.
North Carolina’s Maye went from the sure-fire QB2 and the QB1 of some analysts to seeing his name behind not only LSU’s Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, and now apparently Michael Penix (?) as well (according to some text NFL Network’s Ian Rappoport got from an agent or team with an agenda to push).
So let’s turn on the white noise machine and blur out all of the outside smoke and clamoring of dongs. Let’s get back to tape, charting, and season-long analysis that isn’t impacted by leaked agendas, pro day theatrics, and more.
After a season of charting ball placement and accuracy to determine the Weighted On-Target Percentage of the 2024 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks and a full season of tape to dive into, what is one more in-depth look at this group of gunslingers?
Weighted On-Target Percentage Rankings:
Starting with Weighted On-Target Percentage, which is defined and explained in further detail here, the most accurate quarterbacks at levels of the field that make a larger impact in the class can be seen below.
These are not rankings, but rather how to parse out one particular aspect (of many) of playing the quarterback position. By my metric, however, here is how the top nine quarterbacks faired in putting the ball on the money:
Jayden Daniels, LSU: 76.13%
Drake Maye, North Carolina: 72.77%
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina: 70.62%
Bo Nix, Oregon: 70.49%
Caleb Williams, USC: 69.26%
Michael Pratt, Tulane: 68.28%
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: 66.83%
Michael Penix Jr., Washington: 63.26%
Joe Milton, Tennessee: 58.21%
Again, there is more to quarterback play than just accuracy and Weighted On-Target Percentage does not claim to account for every single aspect of the most difficult position in professional sports.
There is so much we do not have privy to from the outside of programs and buildings. However, from the information that my feeble eyes have been able to digest on tape and with Weighted On-Target Percentage, here are my overall quarterback rankings for the 2024 NFL Draft crop.
2024 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings
1. Drake Maye, North Carolina
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 72.77%
I have not wavered here. And quite frankly, the idea that he could be the third quarterback off the board is lunacy in the highest order.
Drake Maye is what they look like.
Easy velocity, multiple arm slots, on the run and out of structure, top-tier pocket presence. Am I missing something?
Not only does Maye have a strap attached to his right shoulder, but his ability to hit down the field is among the best in the class as well. He and Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels were both on-target on over 65 percent of passes of 25 yards or deeper in 2023. Maye’s ability to hit a landmark when looking deep is extraordinary.
Maye also struck gold at the intermediate level of the field as well, on-targets on 67 percent of his passes outside the numbers on throws between 10-24 yards, and 73 percent over the middle within that same range.
And while North Carolina’s offense did not have the deepest playbooks during Maye’s time with the Tar Heels, the top quarterback prospect remained effective getting through reads as well, connecting on 83 percent of throws where he was forced off of his initial read.
There is an element of prospect fatigue and box score surfing that has led to the cooling of Maye among the general perception. However, looking within the context of what Maye was asked to do, the talent he was playing with, and how often that talent let him down, there was a lot on the plate of the true Junior.
Caleb Williams is going to go no. 1 overall. I get it. But I’m going against the grain here and pounding the table for Drake Maye.
2. Caleb Williams, USC
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 69.26%
Caleb Williams has the goods.
His ability to create magic outside of structure, the almost impossible arm slots he can throw from, the way he can maneuver oft-murky pockets behind an overhyped offensive line. However, there is still a desire to see more from an in-structure and ball placement perspective.
It’s noteworthy how often those out-of-structure plays happen because Williams keeps the ball in his hands too long. From a ball placement and accuracy perspective, Williams is just… average.
There are elements of Williams’ game that can fall into the blame of Lincoln Riley and his offense at USC. It’s un-authentic, juvenile, and handcuffed the future top pick in the draft more than it let him show what he could do in structure when asked to stick in the pocket, feel out coverages post-snap, and make the appropriate adjustment.
Nonetheless, it leaves a box unchecked from Williams’ profile as he looks to translate his game to the NFL level. And it’s a box that is not easy to project as Williams will pick up a steeper, heavier playbook this Spring and Summer.
Some general managers would rather take that massive risk on tools and I get it. Williams has the top-end arm talent to throw through any window and from any platform. That’s just not enough for me to feel confident the acts he pulled at the college level will work against NFL pass rushers and athletes bearing down on him.
Is Williams a tier-one player and worthy of being the top pick in the draft (he’s going to be)? Yes. But he’s not the level of prospect that Andrew Luck was coming out of Stanford or what Trevor Lawrence was coming out of Clemson.
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 76.13%
Jayden Daniels deserves all of the flowers for what he did this past season at LSU that ended in him hoisting the Heisman Trophy. However, his projection to the NFL is much more difficult than simply looking at his stats and JustBombsProductions highlights.
This talk of him potentially being the second quarterback off the board is, quite frankly, wild.
He is going to go first round, and he is going to go much higher than top-32. And to me, that seems like a massive risk, but the quarterback tax continues to reign supreme in the NFL Draft.
There is a ton to love about Daniels’ game though, and he is worthy of being the third quarterback off the board in this draft class.
Daniels is the most accurate quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft class. He racked up the highest Weighted On-Target Percentage of any player in the class, throwing to two future top-20 picks in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
He was most accurate in throwing the football down the field of anyone in the class and showed the ability to get his eyes to backside digs (an undervalued, overlooked part of his game) as he was incredibly efficient working the middle of the field and beyond his first read. His ball placement, specifically landmarks working down the field, is a massive strength to the game of Daniels.
However, Daniels is far from a perfect prospect and the starting point of that conversation has to be with his arm talent. The Heisman winner does not have a big, live arm. He overcomes a great deal of that lack of arm talent with accuracy and throwing with anticipation, but there is no evidence on tape that he can make every throw at the NFL level the way the likes of Maye and Williams can.
Daniels is often given a pro comparison of Lamar Jackson, but his tools are closer to that of Tyrod Taylor (who has been an effective and efficient starting quarterback in the NFL!).
Perhaps the bigger weakness in Daniels’ game, however, is his lack of ability to protect himself as a runner. His legs are a massive, massive selling point to his game. However, Daniels possesses such a thin frame that learning to slide or get out of bounds must become a priority. There are too many big hits on his 2023 tape where the future first rounder has shown an unwillingness to put himself first.
Again, Daniels had an electric 2023 season, but college success and translation to the NFL are two separate entities. The eyes and lower half of Daniels provide a promising outlook, but how well can he protect his slender frame, and how much can he compensate for a lack of arm talent?
4. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 70.62%
Time is a flat circle.
Once touted as the top quarterback prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft class (he still might have been given the outcome of those who came from that group), Rattler has rebuilt his image over the past two seasons after transferring to the University of South Carolina.
He transitioned into a dropback, NFL translateable offense, and kicked many of his bad habits from Lincoln Riley’s offense from his time at Oklahoma. The arm talent is still there, and he even showed a vast improvement in his ability to navigate and maneuver a pocket rather than drifting deeper under pressure (his achilles heel with the Sooners).
As I mentioned in his mid-season primer, though, it does seem like Rattler may have over-corrected from his time at Oklahoma a bit and has had some of the creativity and arrogance coached out of him during his time at South Carolina.
However, the arm is live, the arm slots are there, and his ball placement and accuracy is third in the class! Rattler was on-target on about 68 percent of his passes of 25 or more yards in depth. This is the best in the class.
From the intermediate level, Rattler hit on 73 percent of his throws at over the middle, fielding a strong number. Admittedly, he could be a bit more precise throwing along the boundary, hitting on just 59 percent of those throws. Operating a professional short game, Rattler was on-target on over 91 percent of passes under 10 yards this past season.
Can Rattler rediscover some of the things that made him Spencer Rattler in 2020 while balancing the pro-ready pocket awareness and pre/post-snap cognition he has developed after transferring? If he can, Rattler has the potential to be a wild card in this class who can develop into a future starter.
From a projected top pick in the 2022 class to overlooked, Rattler has grown and battled his way back into the conversation as a top-five quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft.
5. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 66.83%
J.J. McCarthy is a case of letting the level of competition settle in before jumping to judgments.
His early season tape is electric.
However, when getting into his tape against teams who are not East Carolina, UNLV, Rutgers, or the ghost of Michigan State after a scandal got their head coach fired, McCarthy’s game shows major, major cracks.
Yes, he has a rifle. This is not a debate as he can straight sling the football all over the field. However, he has no conception of what touch is when looking to layer passes over second-level defenders and along the boundary. His accuracy also steeply drops off the deeper he throws the ball down the field.
In 2023, McCarthy was on target on just 8-of-21 throws of 25 yards or deeper.
He can operate the short and intermediate game on schedule when he has his initial option open. McCarthy even shows a magician’s ability to make a play when structure breaks down (on-target on 75 percent of looks outside of structure).
However, there are big question marks regarding why Michigan was unwilling to put more on his plate. There isn’t a game in his portfolio that the Wolverines won because of McCarthy, but rather McCarthy played just a role in operating the offense.
Simply put, there is a lack of NFL-caliber throws on McCarthy’s tape or evidence that he was an elevator to that offense. There has to be a better answer than “because his running backs were really good” when curiosity arises as to why he threw just eight times against Penn State, 20 times against Ohio State, and only 18 times in the National Championship game.
The tools are obvious, but a lot is missing from the bigger picture of McCarthy’s profile.
6. Bo Nix, Oregon
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 70.49%
The accuracy profile of Bo Nix is a bit deceiving.
Yes, his Weighted On-Target Percentage is in the upper part of the class. However, looking far more in-depth at his profile, cracks begin to show up, and ones that limit his ceiling as he heads to the NFL level.
The first aspect of his profile that stands out like a red flag is the massive 64 percent of his throws that came under 10 yards in 2023. For perspective, Williams was second-highest in throws under 10 yards, but there is a 7.3 percent chasm between the two.
Compare this to Maye, who threw just 47 percent of his passes under 10 yards (and still had a higher Weighted On-Target Percentage).
When looking at Nix’s deep ball, however? Of the big seven quarterbacks in this class, Nix had the second-worst accuracy in the class ahead of just McCarthy. Watching the Oregon offense, it makes sense as well as Nix is predominantly ripping stick to the hash or throwing a high percentage of screens.
Nix is good when he’s on schedule, but when he’s not it can get pretty ugly.
As someone who watched a ton of Baker Mayfield film from 2018-2021, the way Nix’s feet get scrambled like an egg on the asphalt on a hot summer day when he is forced to move his eyes off of his primary read and work backside is far too similar and worrisome.
The arm talent that Nix has also seems to be a fairly tricky thing to evaluate across the board. However, watching him throw after McCarthy and Joe Milton at the NFL Scouting Combine live, it was quite easy to see his arm fell far short of the velocity those two could rip it with.
From his projection into an offense that would ask more of him, to his arm talent, to his ability to handle pressure, is ceiling is far too capped to consider using a top-64 pick, let alone a top-32 pick on.
7. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 63.26%
I really want to get there with Michael Penix Jr.
His story from two reconstructive knee surgeries to becoming a Heisman finalist after transferring from Indiana to Washington is an admirable one. However, when diving under the hood of his 2023 tape, there are more red flags than are shown on live broadcast or Sportscenter cut ups.
When watching live or from hearing the discourse from pundits on ESPN, Penix Jr. is hyped as a special thrower of the football with the ability to simply place the ball where he wants to down the field. However, when charting every throw from his season, Penix Jr. was on-target on just 54 percent of his throws of 25 yards or more down the field. Trying to thread the ball along the boundary at the intermediate level ended in a similar result for Penix Jr. (58.11%).
Throwing a plethora of deep crossers to three different wide receivers who will all likely go top-100 in the 2024 NFL Draft can cover a lot of sins, and it did for the most part with Penix this season. And while Penix may have ran a 4.5 40-yard dash at his pro day, he has no experience running RPOs and little evidence of success on designed runs or plays outside of structure. Nor would an NFL offensive coordinator feel safe putting a quarterback with two reconstructive knee surgeries in the line of fire with this type of play.
The highs are extremely high for Penix Jr. (Pac-12 championship game vs. Oregon, College Football Playoff semifinals vs. Texas), and the lows are extremely low (Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State). Overall, only Tennessee’s Joe Milton had a lower Weighted On-Target Percentage than Penix Jr. in 2023.
While it’s easy to appreciate Penix Jr.’s story, I have some big question marks about how his game will translate to the NFL level.
8. Michael Pratt, Tulane
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 66.28%
Michael Pratt is a pretty ordinary quarterback.
An ordinary arm, not a real desire to use his legs outside of structure (although he will tuck and run if he has the chance), and pretty average accuracy numbers as well this season with the Green Wave. There was some debate whether or not he’d transfer or declare, and maybe he should have transferred.
A smart player, Pratt knows where his valve is and is unafraid to check the ball down. You can also see him working pre-snap to make adjustments to what he sees on the other side of the ball. He has a firm grasp on his offense.
He does not possess the prowess to drill footballs into tight windows outside the numbers though, and many of his deep balls required adjustments down the field from his receivers. And it shows when charting his throws from this past season.
While the first half of the season resulted in Pratt being among the top-tier quarterbacks in Weighted On-Target Percentage, his game fell off down the stretch.
Considering that he was doing this at a Group of Five level, one would like to see Pratt excel and dominate rather than simply distribute with shaky efficiency. He finished the season on-target on just 59 percent of his deep balls, 67.5 percent at the intermediate level (both over the middle of the field and outside the numbers) and even was below 90 percent on passes under 10 yards.
Pratt has a solid floor as a spot starter if needed, and he will hang around the NFL for quite some time in that role. However, no tool or aspect of his game stands out to elevate him as a top-32 guy at the next level.
9. Joe Milton, Tennessee
Weighted On-Target Percentage: 58.21%
Outside of the big, big arm and the 4.56 40-yard dash, what part of Joe Milton’s profile is appealing at the NFL level?
He is a sixth-year player who was benched by two different Power Five programs, and when he did take the field again as the starter at Tennessee, he did not particularly prove he was an NFL-caliber quarterback in perhaps the most juvenile offense in all of college football.
From an accuracy perspective, there is not a level of the field that Milton thrives at. He was on-target on just 43 percent of his deep throws in 2023. Over the middle of the field at the intermediate level, the Michigan-to-Tennessee transfer was on-target on just 53 percent of his looks, and even operating the short game Milton was near the bottom of the class (85 percent).
Milton has tools for days, with the livest arm in the class and running a 4.56 40-yard dash at his pro day. However, as we have seen with other toolsy quarterbacks (i.e. Malik Willis, Zach Wilson), projecting how a quarterback operates an offense within structure and the design of the play is more pertinent than being able to run fast and throw hard.
And there is nothing on tape that instills confidence in Milton as he transitions to the NFL. While I’m trying to be a nicer, kinder human being, Milton’s NFL pathway may be the one Logan Thomas and Tyree Jackson took.
The rest that a father of two small children didn’t get to
Jordan Travis, Florida State
Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
Kedon Slovis, BYU
2024 NFL Draft QB Tiers
Tier 1: Franchise cornerstones
Drake Maye, North Carolina
Caleb Williams, USC
Tier 2: First round worthy
Jayden Daniels, LSU
Tier 3: Big arms, translatable traits, and risky dealers
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Tier 4: Old guys with box scores bigger than the tape
Bo Nix, Oregon
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Tier 5: If Brock Purdy can do it then so can he
Michael Pratt, Tulane
Tier 6: Trying to be a nicer human being
Joe Milton, Tennessee