2024 NFL Draft: Mid-season check in on Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and the other top names in the class

We are just a bit past the midway point of the college football season. How is this quarterback class, highlighted by Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, shaking out?

We are just over the halfway mark of the college football season, so what better time to dig into this 2024 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks? USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye are the big names, but this class contains a longer list of names than usual.

Coming into the season, some had expectations that there were a handful of these guys that could be impact players at the next level. And while that expectation has cooled, at least for me, it is still a nice class of depth. We saw names like Jake Haener, Stetson Bennett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Aiden O’Connell fly off the board in the middle of Day 3 of the past draft, and there is similar depth this year.

In this article, we will rank where these quarterbacks sit at the midseason point, but we will also discuss ball placement and accuracy, using my charting metric of Weighted On-Target Percentage.

If you need a deeper look at what Weighted On-Target Percentage is, feel free to stop and take a look here. The most important part is that ball placement is just one piece of the puzzle. A high Weighted On-Target Percentage does not equate to a good quarterback.

The best way to do this is to strictly drop the raw numbers in terms of Weighted On-Target Percentage, but then explain the meat of it all in the analysis of my actual quarterback rankings.

I have charted every game of the guys listed below, have dug into a ton of tape, and now have a big enough sample size to form a comprehensive argument. Enjoy.

Weighted On-Target leaders through the first six games

1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: 77.81%

2. Jayden Daniels, LSU: 76.58%

3. Cameron Ward, Washington State: 73.01%

4. Drake Maye, North Carolina: 72.76%

5. Carson Beck, Georgia: 70.70%

6. Michael Pratt, Tulane: 69.42%*

7. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: 68.05%

8. Michael Penix, Washington: 66.99%

9. Bo Nix, Oregon: 66.86%

10. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina: 66.26%

11. Caleb Williams, USC: 64.60%

12. Quinn Ewers, Texas: 59.15%

13. Joe Milton, Tennessee: 52.95%

14. Riley Leonard, Duke: 43.92%

*Pratt only has a five-game sample size due to injury

As a reference, here are where the three first rounders stacked up full-season comparatively to where these prospects are through their first six games of the 2023 season.

Bryce Young: 71.73%

C.J. Stroud: 68.33%

Anthony Richardson: 59.07%

Richardson is the perfect example of how Weighted On-Target Percentage is a small piece of the pie. Placement and accuracy were not the name of the game for Richardson. However, his tape showed an extremely young quarterback with alien-like traits who possesses a lightning-fast release and eye-popping pocket awareness and maneuvering skills.

Translating Richardson to the next level, all of the parts of his game showed up with the Indianapolis Colts as well. Placement and accuracy were still not there before he exited with a season-ending shoulder injury, but he was in the net positive in terms of Expected Points Added per play because he knows how to play the position and use his traits to create explosives on the field regardless.

Midseason rankings of the 2024 NFL Draft crop of Quarterbacks

Looking deeper into each quarterback listed above, here are my midseason rankings of this 2024 NFL Draft crop of talented quarterbacks. Why not start at the top?

That’s right, I am a Drake Maye QB1 truther.

The arm strength, the athleticism, the poise in the pocket, and the sheer arrogance he throws the football with. Maye is playing darts and can seemingly place the football where he wants it with ease. And after the departure of Phil Longo, Maye has been asked to do slightly more at the line of scrimmage pre and post-snap, adding to his NFL resume.

Maye is what they look like. And he knows it.

He is connecting on 62 percent of his deep throws (13-of-21), 65 percent of his throws outside the numbers, a staggering 86 percent of his throws over the middle of the field, and 85 percent when working the short game. There is not a level of the field that Maye cannot attack with precision and on a frozen rope.

He can do it outside of structure when he is forced to, throwing with accuracy and placement on 7-of-9 attempts when he has to make magic when the play breaks down. It takes a ton of effort to poke a hole in Maye’s game.

It’s a bit of a hot take to have him at QB1, but some NFL teams will, and there is a chance come April that he could be the first one off the board.

Let’s talk about it.

Obviously many view Caleb Williams as a can’t-miss prospect who belongs in a tier with Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence. I cannot get there with Williams.

The tools are evident. He is a creator and magician outside of structure, can throw from a multitude of arm slots, and possesses a ton of touch on his throws. I just wish he showed the prowess and/or willingness to stand in structure, read plays out that are there, and deliver on time instead of feeling the need to get out of structure and work in space.

The Notre Dame game is not the reason for him slipping to two. The take has been stewing for a while for me and is not an overreaction to a singular performance. Down-to-down, I want to see Williams be a high-level thrower who is confident in what he sees both pre and post-snap and borderline arrogant with the football.

And let’s point out the obvious. Again, Weighted On-Target Percentage is not the end-all-be-all. But for a player who is being labeled as generational all over my Twitter timeline and throughout the media, you’d expect his placement and accuracy to be… good.

Through his first six games (not even including the Notre Dame game), Williams was on-target on just 52 percent of his deep balls, and 50 percent of his throws at the intermediate level and outside the numbers. These are the money-makers and the game-changers at the next level. I want to see Williams hit those game-changers at a higher clip.

He’s a great player and a sure-fire first rounder, but what Maye is doing on the field is more sustainable and translates to the next level with much more clarity than the magic Williams is able to get away with in clean pockets in the Pac-12.

Do you remember that episode of Parks and Recreation where Ben Wyatt pulls a Dead Poet’s Society to stand up for Jerry? That’s how I feel about having J.J. McCarthy as QB3 as a resident of Columbus, Ohio, and as someone who was raised as a diehard Ohio State fan.

But hey, bias dropped.

McCarthy has one of the best arms in the nation, and while he does make some throws that make you close your eyes and pray, he’s also quite accurate with the football. The deep ball needs work, connecting on just 5-of-13 through his first six games, but he has been on target on an astounding 34-of-42 passes at the intermediate level. Raising the floor, he runs the short game at a high level as well.

What he can do when the play breaks down in front of him as well is magic. McCarthy is sparing with his decisions to work away from structure, but when he does (5-of-7 in those situations), McCarthy’s supreme arm talent takes over as he can throw across or behind his body, and from a multitude of arm slots while on the move.

The obvious needs pointed out: Michigan’s strength of schedule is pathetic. And that might be putting it lightly. However, some of the windows McCarthy is ripping, the pockets to throw through he is creating, and the placement when working outside of structure and throwing opposite hash surpass the competition.

If he continues to play like this against the likes of Penn State and Ohio State, and perhaps into the playoffs, McCarthy is going to be a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Shedeur Sanders is a methodical, brilliant player. The Geno Smith comps are hilariously accurate as both players possess an unbelievable feel from the pocket and lethal precision when throwing the ball down the field.

The most glaring thing to see when looking at the Weighted On-Target Percentage rankings is the gap between Sanders’ placement and accuracy and the next guy down. He has been an assassin with the football, and doing so by working within structure, navigating oft-murky pockets, and stepping up all while playing with active eyes.

His throws of 25+ in depth are finding themselves on-target at an eye-popping 74 percent clip (through his first six games). Working the intermediate level of the field has not been an issue for Sanders either as he is connecting on throws outside the numbers at a 71 percent rate, and over the middle at a 76 percent clip. Knowing where his eyes should be with near perfection (83 percent on-target when throwing beyond his first read!), Sanders is also working the short game at a 93 percent on-target percentage.

Then he has his legs as a weapon as well. While Sanders tries to use them sparingly and opts to work within the pocket when he can, the Buffs quarterback connected on a massive 12-of-14 when he was forced out of structure as well through his first six games (he was 0-of-3 against Stanford, however).

The hype on Sanders is not media-constructed. He is the real deal.

The big knock on his game, however, is the amount of velocity he can generate on his throws as his arm strength is average at best. However, the arm talent to manipulate windows by throwing from a variety of arm slots is present in Sanders’ game.

Whether or not he will declare is one question as he is undoubtedly raking in the NIL money already. But if he does, Sanders is a legit first round talent.

There was once upon a time when a true freshman at Arizona State was deemed as a top talent waiting in the wings. The shine on Jayden Daniels has since dimmed down as he transferred from the Sun Devils and landed with Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers.

He put together a strong first season with the Tigers in 2022, throwing for 2,913 yards and 17 touchdowns. Daniels then opted to return to the college level for his fifth season. And he has already surpassed the heights he reached a year ago just eight games into this season, sitting with over 2,500 yards and 25 touchdowns.

And he is now third in betting odds to win the Heisman Trophy. If I had a vote, and if the vote was today, I would give it to Daniels.

Through his first six games, only Sanders finished with a higher Weighted On-Target Percentage than Daniels. Only Sanders has been more effective throwing down the field as well, as Daniels has been on-target on 16-of-20 shots of 25+ yards. He is hitting on 82 percent of looks over the middle, and 60 percent outside the numbers.

And he is a legit threat with his legs as well. Through eight games, Daniels has rushed for 521 yards and five touchdowns. While Daniels needs to do a better job at protecting himself with the ball in his hands, he is a true duel threat who finds ways to win.

Depending on which underclassmen go back to school, Daniels could find himself in the first round conversation by the time the Spring rolls around.

A late add to the article, I had to go back and chart Carson Beck. And the Georgia gunslinger has it.

While he is not going to extend plays and beat you with his legs, Beck has been surgical down the stretch for the Bulldogs. This is especially the case when operating along the boundary and on backside throws. Beck is throwing with supreme accuracy, and his deep ball has gotten consistently better as the season has gone along.

Beck is operating the short game at a high level (90 percent on-target clip through his first six games), but what he is doing at the intermediate level of the field is eye-popping. He has been on-target on an astounding 88 percent of his passes outside the numbers, and has connected on 76 percent of his passes over the middle.

His arm is legit as he can make throws to every level of the field and on a rope. The upper half mechanics of Beck are tight and whip-like as his front shoulder stays closed and the ball drives out of his hand. Again, there is not much to write home about in terms of what he can do as a ball carrier, but Beck has shown top-notch pocket maneuvering skills as he finds ways to create passing windows to strike through.

Georgia is still the top dawg in the country, and Beck is a big reason why.

Hopefully, this is not your first time hearing Michael Pratt’s name. He’s got the goods.

His sequencing through his hips is tight, and quick, and his front shoulder remains closed off. His arm velocity and arm talent is just above average and not elite, but Pratt is running a pro-ready offense, is working through his progressions with tempo (76 percent on-target rate on throws beyond his first read), and he is throwing the football with great accuracy.

Through his first five games (again, an injury sat him out against Ole Miss as he only has a five-game sample size to work from), Pratt is connecting deep down the field on 69 percent of his attempts. Throwing to the boundary is a weakness in Pratt’s game right now, a symptom of non-elite arm talent, but he is striking on 73 percent of his passes over the middle at the intermediate level. Working the short game at a high level, Pratt is on-target on 93 percent of his looks under 10 yards.

While he does not operate out of structure— literally. He has not thrown a single ball outside of structure in his first five games— Pratt is an able creator with his legs. On the season, the Tulane product has rushed for another 191 yards and three touchdowns. This coming off the heels of a year where he ran for nearly 500 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Green Wave offense.

Pratt, if he declares, will be at the Senior Bowl and will likely be a top candidate to bring home the MVP of the week. By the time the cold weather rolls around, Pratt will be the quarterback who you will hear scouts are much higher on than consensus.

He good.

The floor of Bo Nix is high. Which is an incredible thing to write with the walking meme he had become during his time at Auburn. But after a year and a half at Oregon, it has become apparent that Nix works the short game at a high level. The issue with this, however, is that Nix is not producing high-EPA correlated throws. NFL throws are few and far between on the tape of Nix.

When he is forced to move his eyes or improvise a bit, the lower half of Nix starts to break down and he becomes frantic. Poise is not necessarily a word I would use to describe Nix under pressure.

Nix is hitting on just 50 percent of his deep balls and has only attempted 14 of them through six games. The Oregon product has been able to work on schedule and on time over the rest of the field, but his system does not ask much of him within structure other than spamming stick from hash to number.

He has plus tools and can get involved with his legs, which boosts his stock a bit too. All-in-all, Nix has the makings of one of those third round quarterbacks who may or may not ever make an impact at the next level.

Let’s talk about it: Part II.

Like Williams, I am lower on Michael Penix Jr. compared to where the consensus appears to be on him. It’s worth clarifying right off the bat: I can fully appreciate what Penix has meant to the University of Washington, the kind of season he is having, and giving him the flowers he deserves all while also understanding his translation to the next level is not super clean.

Even throwing out the medicals, which are going to be steep, ball placement and decision-making on a down-to-down basis is volatile at best for Penix (and I haven’t even added the Arizona State game to his chart yet). However, his numbers jump off the page because he has thrown a whopping 34 chartable deep balls through his first six games, and has the wide receivers to go up and get 50/50 balls and adjust their tracks to make a play.

The deep ball that set up the go-ahead touchdown against Oregon is the perfect example of this. While Ja’Lynn Polk went up and made a spectacular play, Penix floated the football into double coverage and the safety lacked every ball skill to make a play on it. It was not a great decision where Polk was able to bail him out.

Penix is great for college football, and he may just have a career as a spot-starting backup. But projecting him as a first round pick or a full-time starter in the NFL takes a lot of creativity.

Through the first four games of the season, Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward was one of the more pleasant surprises.

However, his reckless style of play that has plagued his tape at both Incarnate Word and from Washington State a year ago has returned a bit over the past three games. The three interceptions he threw in the UCLA and Arizona games are three of the worst turnovers you will see all season.

Regardless, the numbers through the first six games are excellent from Ward from a placement and accuracy perspective. He has been on-target on 64 percent of his deep balls, 62 percent on intermediate throws outside the numbers, and a massive 84 percent on attempts over the middle of the field.

Even beyond his first read and outside of structure, Ward has been on-target on over 80 percent of his throws in both of those categories as well.

He’s on-target a great deal, has cleaned up a ton of his upper half mechanics, and is creating magic outside of structure. The only problem continues to be how much you can trust Ward to make a smart play with the football in his hands. This is especially alarming considering the generally juvenile offensive system he plays in.

The good is good. The bad is really bad.

We all thought the former five-star Oklahoma standout Spencer Rattler was a Heisman candidate and a potential first rounder all the way back in 2021. And here we sit in 2023 with Rattler playing out his fifth-year with the South Carolina Gamecocks.

And while he is no longer close to a first round prospect or a Heisman candidate, he is doing some relatively nice things in an offense that is less preferable than watching paint dry. There is a desire, however, to see Rattler let loose with the football instead of showing an over-willingness to check the football down.

When he lets it fly, Rattler has been on-target on 69 percent of his deep balls. However, he has only thrown the ball deep or ripped it outside the numbers on just 30 of his 174 chartable attempts. For context, 119 of those throws have come under 10 yards.

It’s almost like some of the gunslinger mentality that led to electricity early in his career with the Sooners has been coached out of him to the point of playing ultra-conservative. He’s playing efficient football, but almost robotic football.

To make matters worse, he is taking a ton of sacks. And while some of that can fall onto the inadequate offensive line in front of him, Rattler’s tendency to drift in the pocket in the face of pressure that haunted him at Oklahoma continues to follow him with the Gamecocks.

When he’s on schedule, he can produce what is asked of him. But he is not doing much outside of that.

There is a ton of Quinn Ewers QB3 hype out there and I do not get it. Well, I get it a little bit. He beat Alabama, throws the ball cool, and once had a mullet.

However, his deep ball remains incredibly spotty outside of the Bama game, which is an outlier in terms of the full body of work of his career. Ewers might be the most volatile quarterback on a play-to-play basis in the class. He’ll look like a sure-fire first-rounder on one throw, then the next he’ll leave you ready to pull your hair out.

He has been on-target on just 31 percent of his deep balls, a massive lapse in his game. To his credit, he is hitting at a clip of 64 percent outside the numbers and 69 percent over the middle as he is playing well over the middle of the field. However, Ewers has thrown just three passes outside of structure, showing a lack of creativity when the action in front of him breaks down.

He has shown more glimpses over the last three games, so Ewers could be on the rise. For now, however, my guard is all the way up. I understand where consensus is at with Ewers, and I understand I am well below that.

But at this point, it would be in Ewer’s best interest to go back to school.

To be frank, I am probably done watching and charting Riley Leonard until this summer or until he officially declares. Leonard is firmly in the “go back to school” camp as there are no NFL throws on his tape. Duke spams a ton of shallow crossers and mesh concepts, and Leonard does not exactly operate that offense as smoothly as you would like.

There was so much hope, so much promise for Leonard, who I was high on coming into the season. He has the prototypical size, he cleaned his upper body sequencing up and has the lower half tools to beat teams with his legs as well. However, his play has just been… mediocre in 2023.

He has been on target on just 27 percent of his deep balls, and 40 percent outside the numbers. There has been no creativity shown from Leonard outside of structure either. Literally. He has attempted just two passes outside of structure through five games. When he is forced off of his initial spot, Leonard is completing passes at a 67 percent clip beyond his first read.

It’s hard to find a bigger disappointment from pre-draft hype to present-day standing than what Leonard has put on tape at Duke.

Get ready to learn tight end, buddy.

Joe Milton is simply not a good quarterback, no matter how big his arm is. We are now in year six at two different Power Five schools and still seeing the same Joe Milton. The only difference is that he struggles to hit water falling out of a boat in Josh Heupel’s juvenile offense.

Milton’s biggest successes this year have come from spamming screens, those vertical shots that are aplenty at Tennessee are on-target at just a 38 percent clip at this point in the season. To make matters worse, he’s connecting on just 46 percent of his looks over the middle as well.

You’d expect a lot more fireworks at Tennessee than we are getting this season. And Milton’s inability to find his guys on a consistent basis is the crux of the issue.

His only pathway to an NFL career is to emulate the that of Logan Thomas.

Cory’s QB Rankings Recap (with Tiers)

Tier 1: The top dawgs

1. Drake Maye, North Carolina

2. Caleb Williams, USC

Tier 2: First round caliber

3. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

4. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

Tier 3: Reliable shot-callers

5. Jayden Daniels, LSU

6. Carson Beck, Georgia

7. Michael Pratt, Tulane

Tier 4: The volatile gunslingers

8. Bo Nix, Oregon

9. Michael Penix Jr., Washington

10. Cameron Ward, Washington State

11. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

Tier 5: Go back to school

12. Quinn Ewers, Texas

13. Riley Leonard, Duke

Tier 6: Future tight end tryout

14. Joe Milton, Tennessee

Tier 7: QBs I haven’t completed yet because I am a family man but will eventually hit once they declare

Sam Hartman, Notre Dame

Austin Reed, Western Kentucky

Jordan Travis, Florida State

Brady Cook, Missouri

Jalon Daniels, Kansas

Tyler Van Dyke, Miami

Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Feel free to call me an idiot on Twitter at @fakecorykinnan.