It's okay to pump the brakes on Arch Manning

Can we let the guy start first?

I get it. His last name is Manning.

But can we stop crowning Arch Manning as the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Nobody is saying Manning cannot become the top prospect that everyone is already heralding him as entering the 2025 season. But what is there even to evaluate to just go ahead and throw his name at the top of the list in pen, the way that many already are?

There is not enough to chart. There is not enough to even build up any sort of sample size. That’s why I am waiting for a seven-game sample size in 2025 to even consider publishing any sort of thoughts on his film.

Because that’s how we evaluate players. Using film. Not recruiting rankings, last names, or hype. We tried that already with the quarterback that Manning is replacing this season.

Everyone wanted to build up Quinn Ewers because he is the highest-rated recruit in the history of the star system. For two straight draft-eligible years, Ewers was given the benefit of the doubt as a top quarterback in the draft class because of his name alone. Despite an inability to stay healthy and despite no substantial evidence on tape that he deserved to be considered in that group.

The hype finally faded in 2024, where Ewers got hurt once again, had extremely subpar tape (the least accurate quarterback I’ve charted since I started doing so in 2020), and diminishing arm talent and tools. However, that still did not stop top-shelf draft analysts from putting Ewers in their top-100 just weeks before the 2025 NFL Draft.

Ewers almost went undrafted.

Manning has two starts: one against Louisiana-Monroe, his first start of his career, where he struggled against subpar competition, and against Mississippi State, a team that got blown out by Toledo in 2024. So it’s okay to hold out an opinion on Manning until there is a substantial workload to evaluate and make a judgement on.

Not once here am I saying that Arch Manning is not good, nor is he going to disappoint. He very well could live up to the hype. He now has a full offseason as the established starter and leader in Austin, is playing in one of the most quarterback-friendly systems in the nation under Steve Sarkisian, and has the top-end tools to become the top pick in the draft.

But can we let the kid breathe first?

Can we let him put a substantial body of work on tape instead of just projecting what he is going to become? That’s not scouting, that’s not evaluating. Placing Manning at the top of draft boards in May of 2025 is a horoscope.

And I don’t believe in horoscopes. That’s why I am deciding to have zero opinion on Manning outside of what we have limited access to. That is why he won’t be in mock drafts or positional rankings until midseason next year.

Besides, both of his uncles spent four seasons in college before opting to enter the NFL Draft. Given what we have seen in terms of NFL Draft trends and those who have instant NFL success, the trends also indicate that more time in college tends to lead to an easier transition to the NFL.

We might not even see Arch Manning in the 2026 NFL Draft.

So it’s okay to pump the brakes on the Longhorns’ starting quarterback. Nobody who is doing so is making any sort of value judgement on the kind of season or career we think Manning will have. I hope that Manning has a great career. I love watching, charting, and evaluating great quarterbacks.

But there is currently next to nothing to watch, chart, or evaluate.

I get why many are already hot on Manning’s trail. Especially in an SEO-driven world of content. I’m just choosing not to be one of those individuals.

There is nothing wrong with waiting until there is actual valuable evidence to consume before throwing an opinion on the quarterback into the public sphere. So, when you notice a lack of Arch Manning-related content on Daft on Draft until September, that is why.