Mid-week Newsletter: A discussion on analytics, jumping the shark, and more

Happy Wednesday! Enjoy a little rant and some external links to some more draft content to catch up on.

This is a pretty shallow newsletter.

And it should be. The draft is over, and we are heading into the rookie minicamps, OTAs, then the dead period before training camp. With that being said, there is not too much to cover in terms of NFL Draft content, but there is one topic that I have a bone to pick and will dedicate at least a little bit of time to.

So let’s talk about it and then get the heck out of here.

Stop reducing prospects down to a handful of metrics on a spreadsheet

Just for the record, I am very pro-analytics.

I do think there is value to knowing how long quarterbacks hold the football for, how much pressure a quarterback takes can be assigned back to them, and more. I want to know what a wide receiver’s separation score is or how successful they are in contested situations.

I love pass rush win rate as a metric. The list goes on and on and on and on.

However, we have gotten to the point where we have individuals from various sub-sectors of draft social media groups pushing back on players because of one or two analytical metrics. Not tape, not any sort of analysis. Just filtering through some databases.

Obviously, there has been a ton made about Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, and I have been one of the loudest. However, there are members of another community within the draft community who are making broad-sweeping statements on the kind of player he actually is compared to where me, Yahoo! Sports’ Nate Tice, and others have him ranked (very high) because of…

Sacks taken.

That’s it. That’s literally it.

Without any form of context. Without turning on a single game of his tape. You’re telling me you can figure out an entire player’s profile just by filtering through some data? Then why are teams paying NFL scouts? What is the purpose of even putting in the work to find an All-22 plug?

We can use this data and understand it within its context. We cannot be blindly making broad-sweeping judgements on players using only data. If so then we have lost the plot and are not even close to finding it again.

But that’s my one soapbox for the day.

Daft on Draft content update

Here are some things that have dropped from Daft on Draft this week that you may have missed:

Live Charting: Why Fernando Mendoza deserves every bit of hype ($)

Podcast: Grading out the AFC West

Daft on Draft is now on TikTok!

Another podcast episode, grading out the NFC North, just dropped this morning as well. I am also looking to get out one Weighted On-Target Percentage profile this week. We’ve got some podcast news coming out later this week to keep an eye on.

Other NFL Draft-related content

D.C. to host 2027 NFL Draft (via NFL)

Tom Brady and Raiders GM Jon Spytek build “special relationship” (The Athletic)

Top UDFAs that could make final 53-man rosters (Bleacher Report)

Dillon Gabriel predicts landing spot with the Browns with a bird call (via Instagram)

Seahawks already cut popular UDFA linebacker (via Bob Condotta)

Will Johnson issues stern warning after draft slide (via Bo Brack/X)