Updated QB class Rankings: Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, then the field

Better luck next year?

Oct 25, 2024

We are a little over the halfway point of the college football season and into conference play, so this is a great time to look at Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward, and the rest of the 2025 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks.

A full disclaimer right off the bat: It’s not a great class.

Quite a few quarterbacks came into their college football careers with a ton of stars next to their recruiting profiles who have not lived up to that potential at the college level. Ironically, it’s a three-star prospect and a zero-star prospect who lead the way in this draft class.

As we sit today, unless you have a chance to get the top quarterback in this class, it may be a good year to punt on the position. Finding a team to trade into the top-five for a pick you’re trying to punt, however, might be the more difficult conversation (a la the Jacksonville Jaguars settling for Trevon Walker because nobody wanted the pick).

That’s enough blabbering, however. First, we will look at the class through the lense of my metric Weighted On-Target Percentage and how that number compares to last year’s class for context. Then I’ll give you the overall rankings of this class through my eyes.

It is important to remember that these grades are meant to be comparable in a vacuum to those of previous classes. While the grades may look lower than anticipated, it is more understandable when thinking about how to place these quarterbacks in the same conversation as quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and other top-drafted quarterbacks.

Let’s rank and talk about these quarterbacks as we get into the meat of the college football season:

2025 NFL Draft Weighted-On Target Percentages

Starting with this class’ Weighted On-Target Percentage (methodology and understanding of this metric can be found here), this will help us to identify who are the most accurate quarterbacks at the most crucial levels of the field that contribute to explosive plays.

There are limitations to this metric that are described in the linked article above, but what this gives us the idea of is which quarterbacks give their receivers the best chance at making a big play for their team.

These are not my quarterback rankings, just how the class falls in my accuracy metric to this point. Please do not mistake these for my rankings, that comes later as you scroll down.

WOT% Rankings through eight weeks:

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: 76.91
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana: 72.63
Drew Allar, Penn State: 71.98
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 67.62
Cade Klubnik, Clemson: 65.2
Carson Beck, Georgia: 63.64
Cam Ward, Miami: 62.89
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: 55.9
Jalen Milroe, Alabama: 55.84
Quinn Ewers, Texas*: 45.59

*does not have the ideal sample size of six games due to injury

Comparison to the 2024 NFL Draft class:

Jayden Daniels, LSU: 76.13
Drake Maye, North Carolina: 72.77
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina: 70.62
Bo Nix, Oregon: 70.49
Caleb Williams, USC: 69.26
Michael Pratt, Tulane: 68.28
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: 66.83
Michael Penix Jr., Washington: 63.26
Joe Milton, Tennessee: 58.21

Now, let’s dive into my overall rankings of this draft class through the first eight weeks of the season:

Week 9 Mailbag: 2025 NFL Draft risers, fallers, OL sleepers, and more

Cory Kinnan

October 21, 2024

Read full story

1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

There is one Day 1 starter in this 2025 NFL Draft class, and it’s Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders.

Both his arm and his legs are what I’d characterize as Average+. They are above average, but neither of those tools are going to cause eyes to pop. The rest of his game, however, is hard to poke a hole in.

Yeah, the pressure-to-sack ratio is higher than most quarterbacks in this class, but when turning on the tape it is evident he is fighting to stay in structure and step through the pressure. His numbers are a bit more inflated as he is playing behind the worst Power Four offensive line in the country.

He’s showing some stones with some of the throws he’s making with a man in his face.

Sanders, while he will never be mistaken for a mobile quarterback (he shouldn’t be anyway), has also decided to use his legs a bit more this season to make plays. This is pretty akin to C.J. Stroud coming out of Ohio State when fans and analysts were screaming for him to just tuck the ball and run every once in a while. That hasn’t been an issue since the Georgia game his last year with the Buckeyes.

As far as accuracy is concerned, Sanders is the most accurate passer in the last two draft classes, up there with what Jayden Daniels was doing at LSU last season at every level of the field. His Weighted On-Target Percentage sits at 76.91 on the season. Daniels’ was at 76.13 in his Heisman-winning season.

The front-runner in this class has been on-target on 73 percent of his deep balls, 78 percent of his throws outside the numbers, and 78 percent over the middle of the field.

Perhaps most important and impressive from Sanders in 2024? He is near the bottom of the nation in Turnover Worthy Plays while sitting in the top-20 in Big Time Throws (via PFF).

Sanders has the brilliance to step into an NFL offense and run it at a high level. He’s already doing it with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, who has been an NFL head coach twice and ran a multitude of his own units. Watching Sanders work his eyes through progressions and find backside overs and digs is a work of art.

Operationally on the field, Sanders is the most mature quarterback in this class. And while he might not have even been a top-three quarterback in last year’s class, Sanders is the only quarterback in this class worthy of a top-five pick this year.

Grade: Mid-first round

2. Cam Ward, Miami

Honestly kind of the default QB2 in this class is Miami’s Cam Ward. No other quarterback is rising, and the arm talent and tools of Ward are too good to ignore for long. The arm angles and zip he can put on the football is undeniable. He is a ton of fun in the ways he can use his legs to create chunk plays for the Hurricanes.

If his tools are top-end, then why isn’t he QB1?

That’s a pretty decent question in a draft class that I’ve already deemed doomed from the start. Because I don’t love everything else on an operational level from Ward.

His accuracy is just okay. At pretty much every level of the field. While he is on-target on 75 percent of his throws over the middle of the field, he is on-target on just 48 percent of his deep balls and 65 percent of his throws outside the numbers.

Ward also operates the short game at the lowest level of any quarterback in this class. This isn’t a surprise to anyone who watches his game as he tends to frequently bypass easy completions to hunt the big play (even on third and short-to-medium situations that make me want to run my head through a wall).

He has gotten better at limiting turnovers than he has in the past. In previous years he has led the nation in fumbles by a long shot. This year, Ward has fumbled the football just twice. Both, however, have come in conference play.

This is where Ward has seen a drop-off in play in the past. He’ll start the season red-hot then fall off in conference play. His turnover-worthy plays spiked against Virginia Tech and Cal in back-to-back weeks and his big-time throws dropped.

His bounce-back with a stellar performance, however, gives me hope we might have a more consistent Ward on our hands. And his schedule is certainly favorable as he likely is not tested again until the ACC championship game.

Even if he stays consistent though, there remains the element of his plays that NFL teams are going to try to harness: his desire to operate almost exclusively outside of structure. Ward loves to get out of the pocket, even against four-man and three-man rushes, and operate along the boundary and on the run with his legs.

It’s a ton of fun to watch at the college level, but there is a time and a place for it. This is what makes Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes special. They know how to win in structure and when it’s time to put the cape on and cosplay as Superman. Ward wants to wear the cape full-time.

Can he learn to consistently be on-time and run a concept the way his coaches want him to? This is the biggest question mark for Ward entering the NFL level, and a question mark that doomed a quarterback like Zach Wilson after a year of fun, out-of-structure college tape at BYU before being selected second overall in 2021.

Grade: Mid-second round

3. Drew Allar, Penn State

Are there very evident warts to the game of Penn State’s Drew Allar? Of course. However, as we have discussed, this class is extremely thin at the top. So despite a mid-Day 2 grade and a plea for him to go back to school, some teams may just draft him early regardless.

And it’s because of the missile launcher attached to his right shoulder. His upper half is smooth and the ball explodes out of his hand. Allar has the best arm talent in the class. And the accuracy isn’t bad either.

He is on-target on passes outside the numbers at an 80 percent clip, over the middle at a 75 percent clip, and works the short game at an 86 percent clip. He has even connected on 60 percent of his throws down the field as well.

The problem?

He doesn’t take shots down the field often, so that number is inflated as he is 6-of-10 on passes deep down the field. The lower half tools are another issue to his game.

Can Allar run a bit? Yeah, but he looks extremely uncomfortable doing so as he strains to put his foot in the ground and change directions to get upfield. His lower half tools are probably average to slightly below average.

Allar needs more big throws on tape. Some of his middle of the field and throws down the hashes are beautiful, but let’s see him let it rip a bit more over the back half of the season.

Grade: Early third round

4. Cade Klubnik, Clemson

There might not be a more improved quarterback in the nation from last year to this year than Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. It’s easy to remember why he was a five-star recruit when you turn his tape on.

Not only does Klubnik have the arm to make every throw, but he can flat-out scoot when he tucks the ball and runs as well. Which is why Clemson loves to run the RPO and read-option game with him at the helm (yes, he runs a pretty juvenile offense).

While his decision-making and eyes are still a bit suspect, his accuracy is much better than his completion percentage would indicate as he is throwing to a unit of extremely young players. Through this point in the season, there is a reason he has the third-highest Weighted On-Target Percentage in the class.

He has been on-target on 52 percent of his deep balls this season, 70 percent of his throws outside the numbers, and 72 percent of his throws over the middle as well. After a rough opening week against Georgia, Klubnik has the Clemson offense rolling.

Like Allar, Klubnik needs to go back to school and continue to improve, but his trajectory is linear and that might be good enough for him in a bad class of gunslingers.

Grade: Early third round

5. Jalen Milroe, Alabama

No quarterback has been more Jekyll and Hyde than Alabama’s Jalen Milroe this season.

His game against Georgia was perfect. He had the answer to every blitz and coverage rotation the Bulldogs threw at him. Milroe has shown great strides as a passer in structure and in the pocket as you can see his eyes and feet in sync as he works through progression. He’s trying to do all of the big things right at the quarterback position.

However, his last two games against South Carolina and Tennessee have been flat-out poor. Like UDFA bad.

In these two weeks, Milroe is just 1-of-4 on deep balls, a measly 2-of-8 on throws outside the numbers, and just over 50 percent on passes over the middle of the field at a 7-of-13 clip. His Tennessee tape looked like a Monstar zapped the talent from his body.

At the end of the day, Milroe has a big arm that generates a ton of RPMs to drive the football into tight windows and is legitimately the best athlete on Alabama’s roster. He deserves every right to play the quarterback position at the NFL level.

There is a reason, however, that some NFL teams have him graded as a running back in his stout 6-foot-1 and 220-pound frame. He runs a 4.3 40-yard dash, possesses excellent vision with the football in his hands, and is lethally agile to make defenders miss in the open field.

For now, this remains an asset to him as a quarterback, comparing closest to a juiced-up version of Jalen Hurts. The tools are there, and the strides have been evident. Milroe just needs to get off of the roller coaster and level out his play for the rest of the season.

Grade: Late third round

6. Carson Beck, Georgia

Boy, this is quite the fall for a lot of analyst’s QB1 before the season started.

Georgia’s Carson Beck was touted for his accuracy, ability to get the ball out on time, decision-making, and overall high floor as an operational quarterback akin to Kirk Cousins at the NFL level. However, very little of that has followed Beck into the season.

He’s pressing.

I don’t know if he’s trying to prove to NFL scouts that his tools are better than they are, but he is hunting big plays and trying to use his legs way more often than he should. In the wacky stat of the day, Beck has more scramble attempts than Jalen Milroe.

He’s playing way outside of his game right now, and it’s hurting him way more than helping him. And it’s happening the most in his biggest games. Against Mississippi State, Beck played almost flawless football. However, this past weekend against Texas, Beck looked almost as clueless as he did against Alabama.

Most damning from Beck, he is operating over the middle of the field at the lowest level of any quarterback in this class. He’s routinely throwing interceptable passes down the hashes, almost blind to robbers coming downhill. He is, however, operating on time and accurately in the short game, giving him at least a tolerable ceiling.

What has salvaged Beck’s profile this season has been his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers and down the field. He has been on-target on 50 percent of his deep throws (still not great, but a higher clip than Ward, Nussmeier, Milroe, and Ewers), and 72 percent of his throws outside the numbers. He is third in the class in accuracy toward the boundary.

Overall, however, Beck has gone from the QB1 of some to an outlook of a backup and spot-starter at the NFL level. He likely still gets drafted on Day 2, but gets a Day 3 grade from me here.

Grade: Mid-fourth round

7. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has earned the title of the quarterback with the most hype this season as a first-year starter. However, when looking under the hood a bit more, there is an evident backup quarterback.

He can manipulate a ton of passing windows with a multitude of arm angles and layer the football over the middle of the field at a high level (on-target on over 80 percent of these throws). His sack avoidance is also near the top of the class. Those are the strengths of Nussmeier’s game.

However, his tools are average at best. When Nussmeier loses his base beneath him, the amount of drive he can put on the football takes a steep hit. This lack of evident drive is on display when he is forced to push the ball down the field or outside the numbers.

Thus far, Nussmeier has been on par on just 30 percent of his passes over 25 yards in depth and on-target on 54 percent of throws outside the numbers.

While his sack avoidance is low and there are flashes of excellent movement in the pocket, he far too often drifts off of his line to his left and out of a clean pocket. This is correctable, but being willing to hang in tough pockets is more of a toughness mindset than something coachable.

Marrying this suspect pocket awareness with subpar lower-half tools, and Nussmeier finds himself throwing off-base way more than he needs to. Hence why his Weighted On-Target Percentage is way lower than the other top names in this class.

He’ll probably get drafted on Day 2, but that’s a bet I’d let another team make.

Grade: Early fifth round

8. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana

Talk about a fun little riser into a draftable prospect, Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke is two years removed from being the MAC Player of the Year with the Ohio Bobcats and is now the headliner of perhaps the best story in college football this season.

Indiana is sitting undefeated, at the top of the Big Ten, and coming off of a monster win over Nebraska. While Rourke is set to miss their game against Washington, they face Michigan State and Michigan before a potential big-time showdown with Ohio State.

His throwing mechanics will need reworking as he has a slow and round throwing motion and has a pretty steep medical background. However, there is a great deal to like about the game of Rourke relative to the other upperclassmen in the class.

The ball just explodes out of the hand of Rourke. There is not a throw on the field that Rourke cannot make. And he’s doing it at an incredibly accurate clip as well. Some of the windows he’s throwing into are huge as head coach Curt Cignetti is scheming open wide receivers all over the field, but that doesn’t make the placement of his throws any less impressive.

He is connecting on two-thirds of his deep balls this season, 73 percent of his looks outside the numbers, 75 percent of his shots over the middle, and is operating the short game at an above-average clip as well.

Is Rourke a first round sleeper? No. But he has a pathway as a potential long-time backup quarterback at the NFL level.

Grade: Early fifth round

9. Quinn Ewers, Texas

The highest-rated recruit ever out of high school, Quinn Ewers has not lived up to the hype at Texas. And even worse, it looks like his body is breaking down on him. He has sustained injuries in all three seasons as the starter in Austin, and his rail-thin body type already looks like it has served two tours overseas.

The arm, despite the fun arm angles, just does not have much juice behind it. When Ewers has to drive the ball rather than just check it down, he constantly underthrows receivers down the field and toward the boundary.

His feet look skittish whenever he has to come off of his initial read in his progression and he often opts to check it down rather than read out a concept with a receiver coming open down the field. Finding a big, anticipatory throw on his tape is extremely difficult to dig up.

While Ewers lacks a substantial sample size due to his injury, he is just 3-of-8 on deep balls, on-target on just 43 percent of his throws outside the numbers and just 41 percent over the middle of the field. Ewers is quite literally a screen and check-down merchant.

Through three seasons with the Longhorns, there is little to hang your hat on with Ewers as a legitimate NFL quarterback. It would not be a shock to see Ewers benched again before the end of the season for Arch Manning.

Grade: Mid-fifth round

10. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Every year, I have one Weighted On-Target Percentage that is a bit fluky. This year and at this point in the season, that belongs to Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart. Why is it fluky, you might ask? because the bulk of his inflation is coming against bad opponents.

Dart played Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern in his first four games of the season. Of course, he ripped these teams to shreds. Since entering SEC play, however, the numbers have been quite drastically different.

In his three conference games thus far, Dart is just a measly 7-of-24 on deep balls. If I were to calculate his Weighted On-Target Percentage of just the SEC games played, his number would drop into the 50s.

From an actual on-tape analysis of Dart, the first thing that stands out is the juvenile offense he is asked to operate. However, this is not a huge deal as long as Dart still passes the tests in front of him, and he has not over the last three weeks.

Dart is throwing the football into traffic at a higher level, struggling to connect down the field despite throwing it at an extremely high rate. Much of this could come down to his arm. Dart possesses an average at best arm and struggles to drive the football into tight windows or on a line down the field.

There just is not much to hang your hat on with Dart having a smooth or impactful transition to the NFL.

Grade: Sixth round

I wrote a mock draft (I fucking hate writing mock drafts)