Weighted On-Target Percentage: Remaining bullish on Aidan Chiles despite rough 2024

I know what his box score says, but Aidan Chiles gives a glimpse of what is to come

The odds of Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft are small. But he is a candidate that I am firmly placing in my “risers” tier, namely because of what he put on film in terms of his ball placement and accuracy profile.

My summer scouting Weighted On-Target Percentage database for the 2026 crop of gunslingers is already live, and I’ve already written up a full accuracy and ball placement profile on South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. Be sure to check those out.

But here, we are going to talk about a second-year starter who does not even turn 20 years old until the middle of September. If you were to just look at his box score, you would think we have no business talking about him yet. And we probably don’t. The NIL era and his ability to make life-changing money while hanging at the college level to develop before leaping into the NFL means Chiles probably isn’t a 2026 guy.

But he has the tools to be. And he very well could be if he takes a massive leap in his second season as the starter in East Lansing. Besides, the film and accuracy profile are so much better than the box score would indicate.

So let’s talk about Chiles, what to make of his 2024 season, his Weighted On-Target Percentage profile, and why I am choosing to remain bullish on the young quarterback.